Starting point: 45 +4 Muffler[1]
I calculated that 45 would be just enough to reach 1 +9 Muffler [1] on average. I'm aware that my numbers are based on the law of big numbers and that it can go either way, but I've tipped the odds in my favor by rounding down the number of succesfull upgrades at each stage. If I used the unrounded number then 34,3 Mufflers should suffice to reach +9. So using the law of big numbers I'm actually using a good 30% more than the required amount of mufflers. Anyway, let's go!
Let's get started: GO GO UPGRADE!
41 out of 45 made it to +5, that's within expectation (expected 90%, I got 91.1%) and slightly in my favor. +6 Here we go!
21 out of 41, that's borderline acceptable (expected 60%, I got 51.2%) and very much NOT in my favor.
13 out of 21, that's within expectation (expected 60%, I got 61.9%) and slightly in my favor. But it doesn't make up for the butchering I got last round.
3 out of 12. Again, withing expectation (expected 30%, I got 23.1%) and slightly out of my favor.
0 out of 3. Not entirely unexpected... it's just... I can't... It's not like...
IT'S TOTALLY UNFAIR. I USED TO OWN A +9 MUFFLER BUT BECAUSE THE GM'S WON'T EVEN LIFT A FINGER TO HELP ME RETRIEVE IT FROM AN UNUSED ACCOUNT I'M STUCK HAVING TO TRY AND REMAKE IT. THIS IS COSTING ME ZENY AND REAL MONEY. THE GM'S OWE ME MY +9 MUFFLER [1]!!! IN FACT, GIVE ME A +9 ANCIENT CAPE [1] INSTEAD TO COVER THE EMOTIONAL DAMAGE.
I calculated that 45 would be just enough to reach 1 +9 Muffler [1] on average. I'm aware that my numbers are based on the law of big numbers and that it can go either way, but I've tipped the odds in my favor by rounding down the number of succesfull upgrades at each stage. If I used the unrounded number then 34,3 Mufflers should suffice to reach +9. So using the law of big numbers I'm actually using a good 30% more than the required amount of mufflers. Anyway, let's go!
Let's get started: GO GO UPGRADE!
41 out of 45 made it to +5, that's within expectation (expected 90%, I got 91.1%) and slightly in my favor. +6 Here we go!
21 out of 41, that's borderline acceptable (expected 60%, I got 51.2%) and very much NOT in my favor.
13 out of 21, that's within expectation (expected 60%, I got 61.9%) and slightly in my favor. But it doesn't make up for the butchering I got last round.
3 out of 12. Again, withing expectation (expected 30%, I got 23.1%) and slightly out of my favor.
0 out of 3. Not entirely unexpected... it's just... I can't... It's not like...
IT'S TOTALLY UNFAIR. I USED TO OWN A +9 MUFFLER BUT BECAUSE THE GM'S WON'T EVEN LIFT A FINGER TO HELP ME RETRIEVE IT FROM AN UNUSED ACCOUNT I'M STUCK HAVING TO TRY AND REMAKE IT. THIS IS COSTING ME ZENY AND REAL MONEY. THE GM'S OWE ME MY +9 MUFFLER [1]!!! IN FACT, GIVE ME A +9 ANCIENT CAPE [1] INSTEAD TO COVER THE EMOTIONAL DAMAGE.